Two More Weeks

There are two more weeks left in the election season. A lot can happen in two weeks, as we’ve seen recently.

It is, therefore, the greatest of hubris to make predictions at this point. So of course I’m going to do it anyway.

My prediction: Obama wins the electoral college 349 to 189.

I'm trying to include a map of my prediction, but I'm finding it difficult and time-consuming. You'll just have to be content with the numbers for now. Then in two weeks you can tell me how wrong I am.

Obama is making a big push in states that Bush carried in 2004. If he’s inordinately successful then the very best case scenario is that he wins 386 to 152.

There’s also a worst case scenario, in which all the states that are remotely in play just now go for McCain, resulting in Obama winning 273 to 265.

Personally, I’d love to see something like my original prediction, but one in which Obama also carries either North Carolina or Indiana. This would give him a 2 to 1 electoral victory. That would be very satisfying. It might even be a mandate.

There’s two weeks to go, though. During the next two weeks Obama will continue to chip at McCain Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota, and Montana – possibly in that order.

During the next two weeks McCain will be talking about voter fraud.

There is very, very little evidence of attempted voter fraud. There is almost no evidence of successful voter fraud – existing systems for detecting and preventing voter fraud work surprisingly well – so well that they might flag real voters as fraudulent, actually. Nevertheless, you’re going to be hearing a lot about voter fraud in the next two weeks.

What it comes down to is this: The Obama campaign has registered a lot of new voters, and also has implemented a very effective get-out-the vote apparatus. A lot of people are going to be voting this year who don’t always vote, or have never voted before.

If the GOP wants to win, one possible strategy is to prevent or disqualify those voters using any and every legal means at its disposal.

Here are a couple of AP articles from October 7th and October 9th regarding the ongoing voter verification process.

The upshot is that in order to challenge as many votes as possible on election day, the GOP will be talking about voter fraud between now and then. That's all they seem to talk about on FOX News.

Yes, I've been trying to watch FOX News. I have, on occasion, been guilty of reading and watching news only from the more liberal side of our news media. So, in order to prevent myself from being the unwitting victim and carrier of media bias I am making an attempt to tune into FOX News on occasion. All they can seem to talk about just now is voter fraud. Voter fraud and Joe the Plumber.

Poor Joe. He asked a decent question, and the media has been tearing his life to shreds.

Thank goodness for The Daily Show. No better media watchdog exists just now. Here's their take:



It's interesting to note, though, that Joe asked a question that was not about how Obama's tax plan would affect him now or in the near future, but rather about how Obama's tax plan would affect him when he attained his particular version of The American Dream.

A lot of people do this. A lot of voters vote for tax plans (or rather for politicians who offer tax plans) that will benefit them when they are wealthy, but will not so much benefit them now. They vote for they guy who's going to be good for them when they Get Rich. They don't necessarily vote for the guy who will help them Become Financially Secure.

This is an interesting phenomenon. I wonder if I'll still vote democratic when I win the lottery...?